Nokia Expects Phone Sales to Fall 5 Percent in 2009
On November 14, Nokia reported that estimates for both the fourth-quarter of 2008 and the whole of 2009 would be lower than expected, and got burned. Today, Nokia added more fuel to the flames with its latest announcement that industry sales for 2009 would drop by a least 5 percent, and fourth-quarter sales would be lower than the previous 330 million unit estimate. At Nokia’s Capital Markets Day, there was also the standard spiel about reducing costs and the company being well-positioned, etc but the bottom line was that the mobile phone industry is hurting, and will be hurting next year too.
That’s not all, however. Apparently, Nokia’s forecasters seem to be having a little trouble figuring out just what the company’s market share might be next year:
“Nokia believes there is insufficient visibility in the marketplace to confirm its prior estimate for its fourth quarter 2008 mobile device market share, which was expected to be at the same level or slightly up from an estimated 38% in the third quarter 2008.”
Other major points (not necessarily bad):
- In 2009, Nokia expects its market share to improve, and notably in the smartphone category (thanks to the Nokia N97 maybe?)
- Sales in emerging markets seem to be taking the biggest hit globally
- The mobile infrastructure (Nokia Siemens Networks) will stay flat in 2008, and fall 5% in 2009
- Under Nokia’s priorities for 2009: “To mobilize consumer email and consumer instant messaging for millions of Nokia device users, and; To further integrate and simplify Nokia’s web services user interface and device user interface.”
I think we’ll also see a drop in high-end phones sales and more sales in cheaper models.
Mark